Unfortunately, COVID-19 is going to kill more people in 2021 than it did in 2020 it seems.  A third mutation in the B.1.617 has been identified and amidst this new discovery, the COVID-19 surge along with rising deaths has sent distress signals all across India raising fears whether the third mutation was responsible for the surge.

The previous two recently discovered mutations E484Q and L452R are highly infectious and can evade antibodies and the third mutation B.1.617 found, first reported from Maharashtra on October 5th is found to be deadlier, far more virulent but still, investigations are underway and that too, only in 10 laboratories so the virus genome studies on this are still very raw.

However, it is suspected to be far deadlier than the earlier mutants and NDTV quoted Madhukar Pai, professor of epidemiology at McGill University, as saying. “This is a more transmissible variant. It is making lots of people sick very quickly. We have to keep tweaking vaccines. For that, we need to understand the disease. But we need sequencing on a war footing.”

Other studies say that most patients can do with home isolation, but a clinical experience combined with genome sequencing data can alone generate clear scientific evidence. Clinical anecdotes from doctors suggest the variant spreads swiftly, is far more infectious, can infect entire families and people of all ages, where now even children are catching the virus, but they are concluding it is less virulent and doesn’t cause dramatically more hospitalizations.

It is suspected that the death rates may be higher than revealed as many COVID deaths could be attributed to another cause.  While crematoriums and cemeteries reveal mass cremations and burials, too vast that to handle, such high figures are not revealed by the official data.

The city of Bhopal used COVID-19 protocols to cremate or bury 84 people last Tuesday, according to the Hindustan Times, while declaring only five COVID deaths officially. While the B.1.617 variant is not studied or understood yet, it reveals features linked with higher infection rates and lower antibody resistance and alarmingly is being revealed in more than half of viral samples taken in India, so it is rapidly increasing.

COVID infection rates over the past seven days have raced ahead at nearly three times the level two weeks ago.  This was the pace of growth that the U.S.A. last saw in the early days of the COVID outbreak one year back in 2020.

In the meantime, India has downplayed the impact of the B.1.167, saying the number of such mutations is still very small and cannot be attributed to the primary reason for the sudden COVID surge.  But the reality on the ground is per reports from states like Maharashtra, Delhi, and West Bengal, they are believed to have cases driven by the triple mutant.

Vinod Scaria, a scientist at IGIB, Genomics said that the proportions of B.1.618 have been growing significantly in recent months in the state of West Bengal, along with triple variant B.1.617.

While studies are on, two and two must add up to four.  The unprecedented second wave of COVID-19 along with the discovery of a new triple mutant strain does not appear to be coincidental.  Maharashtra where it was initially discovered has the highest spikes of COVID in India.

The mass election campaigning and other huge gatherings for functions, festivals, celebrations, big weddings, and religious ceremonies such as the Kumbh Mela, the pilgrimage festival, the largest mass gathering on earth, attended by an estimated over 2 million people must have also added fuel on the  B.1.617 mutant to feed on and we will see its heinous results in months.

Cinemas halls were opened again, and absolutely no social distancing norms were followed.  Health Minister Harsh Vardhan declared the country “in the endgame of the COVID-19 pandemic” in early March, approximately at the same time COVID cases started to surge again.  In fact, the BJP wing and followers went on a rant praising the Prime Minister for his excellent management of COVID-19.

Sadly, even the leaders of the nation did not honor the COVID-19 protocols which have led to the pandemic spiraling out of control in India more evident to all in March and April.  While the globe is being attacked, India’s defenses are being hacked. In all probability, the present vaccine which may be effective to fight COVID may not be able to fight the third mutation because it will not generate the antibodies in the body to fight the complex B.1.617 which scientists believe partially evades immunity. A new vaccine may need to be manufactured to quench the new third mutant.

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