Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to the Maldives from July 25–26, 2025, to commemorate the archipelagic nation’s 60th Independence Day is far more than a ceremonial observance. At a time when the Indian Ocean is becoming a theatre of intensifying geopolitical rivalry, the visit underscores India’s enduring commitment to regional harmony, development-driven diplomacy, and principled leadership in contrast to China’s assertive maritime ambitions. It represents a strategic reset—a calibrated assertion of India’s Neighbourhood First and SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) doctrines.
A Historical Continuum of Trust and Assistance
India’s relationship with the Maldives has always stood out for its consistency, goodwill, and principled support. Since the early days of Maldivian independence, India has provided assistance without conditionalities. In 1988, when the Maldives faced a coup attempt by mercenaries, India’s swift military intervention under Operation Cactus protected the legitimate government and reinforced India’s role as a reliable security provider. The same spirit of solidarity was visible after the 2004 tsunami, when India provided immediate humanitarian relief, and during the COVID-19 pandemic when it delivered vaccines and essential supplies under its ‘Vaccine Maitri’ initiative.
India has continuously prioritized the Maldives in its development diplomacy, assisting in key sectors such as health, education, infrastructure, and climate resilience. Whether it be the Greater Malé Connectivity Project (GMCP), the Indira Gandhi Memorial Hospital, the National College for Policing and Law Enforcement, or integrated water and sanitation projects in remote atolls—India’s hand has always been there, quiet yet vital.
Strategic Rebalancing in the Indian Ocean
However, the bilateral trajectory has not been without strain. The recent years witnessed a surge in anti-India rhetoric in Malé, especially with the rise of President Mohamed Muizzu, who came to power backed by the controversial “India Out” campaign. This movement exploited sovereignty anxieties and was seen as aligning closely with Beijing’s interests. The temporary souring of ties led to diplomatic recalibrations, with India withdrawing its military personnel from the Maldives and engaging in backchannel diplomacy to ensure the broader trajectory of ties was not derailed.
PM Modi’s visit thus marks the culmination of efforts to reset the relationship, reflecting both countries’ realization that strategic pragmatism must triumph over political posturing. The visit is expected to finalize a new chapter under the “India-Maldives Joint Vision for Comprehensive Economic and Maritime Security Partnership,” signalling a future-focused, multifaceted engagement.
Countering China’s Predatory Presence
The India–Maldives dynamic cannot be understood in isolation from the larger Indo-Pacific chessboard. China’s presence in the region—via port construction, debt-heavy infrastructure under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and maritime surveillance—has stoked serious concerns in New Delhi. The docking of Chinese surveillance vessels in Maldivian waters in 2024 and China’s growing strategic footprint are emblematic of a revisionist power intent on challenging India’s traditional sphere of influence.
Unlike China’s transactional approach, India’s development assistance has always been demand-driven, transparent, and respectful of sovereignty. For instance, India’s support for the Uthuru Thila Falhu harbour project and coastal radar systems aims to enhance Maldivian self-reliance in maritime surveillance, not extend Indian military control. India’s proposed currency swap and enhancement of its existing Lines of Credit—from ₹470 crore to ₹600 crore—further emphasize its long-term commitment to Maldivian economic stability.
India’s assertive yet accommodating diplomacy contrasts starkly with China’s hegemonic strategies. While Beijing pushes dual-use infrastructure and debt traps, New Delhi offers scholarships, solar panels, rescue helicopters, and clean water plants. This developmental ethic is what makes India a true regional partner.
Political Optics and Domestic Sensitivities
President Muizzu’s pivot back to India reflects both a practical recognition of interdependence and the domestic political reality of coalition politics. His engagement with Modi at COP28 in Dubai in late 2023, his visit to India thereafter, and the symbolic invitation extended to Modi to attend the Independence Day celebrations as Chief Guest all reflect a recalibrated foreign policy posture.
India’s deft diplomacy—marked by patience and strategic silence amid provocations—has paid dividends. It allowed space for course correction in Malé while avoiding escalation. Now, the challenge is to ensure that renewed warmth translates into durable institutional frameworks, greater people-to-people connectivity, and regional co-ownership of development projects.
Looking Ahead: Geopolitical Stakes and Developmental Synergy
As over 80% of India’s maritime trade traverses the Indian Ocean, the Maldives’ geostrategic location near vital sea lanes makes it indispensable to India’s security calculus. The strategic stakes are high: without Indian presence, the vacuum will inevitably be filled by less benign actors.
Modi’s visit is likely to yield new MoUs in healthcare, digital connectivity, fisheries, renewable energy, and climate resilience. With the Maldives being acutely vulnerable to climate change, India’s commitment to collaborate on early warning systems and coastal adaptation infrastructure could emerge as a central pillar of bilateral cooperation.
India is also investing in soft power. From tourism—where Indian tourists remain the second-largest contingent—to education exchanges, yoga diplomacy, and cultural collaborations, India seeks to win not just minds but also hearts.
Conclusion: A Partnership Reimagined
India’s approach to the Maldives—rooted in trust, respect, and genuine partnership—is a blueprint for ethical diplomacy in the Global South. It offers an alternative to coercive statecraft, emphasizing empathy over entrapment, collaboration over coercion, and mutual benefit over zero-sum gains. Modi’s visit encapsulates this philosophy, presenting India not just as a power in the region, but as a partner of choice.
In the evolving geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific, New Delhi is not merely reacting to China’s moves—it is shaping its own strategic narrative. The 2025 Maldives visit stands as a testament to India’s resolve to lead with wisdom, strength, and foresight.
The Indian message is clear: regional leadership comes not from intimidation, but from inspiration. In the face of maritime rivalries and foreign enticements, India is offering the Maldives—and the region—a different future. One built not on fear, but on friendship. Not on subjugation, but sovereignty. Not on domination, but development.
Author’s bio
Dr. Maheep is the Principal Investigator of a national project on India’s Soft Power Diplomacy and a leading analyst of India’s foreign policy, with over a decade of teaching and research experience in International Relations and Global Politics. He contributes regularly on relevant issues shaping national and global affairs.
DISCLAIMER
We have taken every measure to ensure that the information in this article and on our social media platforms is accurate, verified, and obtained from reliable sources. For feedback or complaints, please contact us at info@hamslive.com.