India’s bilateral trade of imports of oil and fertilizers with Russia has soared to an all-time high of $18,229.03 million in just five months (April-August) of this financial year (2022-23), according to the latest data available with the Department of Commerce.  There was an over 500% increase in three months – 561.1% in June, 577.63% in July and 642.68% in August – as compared to the same months of the previous year.

In contrast, the total annual bilateral trade between the two countries stood at $13,124.68 million in 2021-22, and $8,141.26 million in 2020-21. Pre-COVID, it was $10,110.68 million in 2019-20, $8,229.91 million in 2018-19, and $10,686.85 million in 2017-18.

Russia has now become India’s seventh biggest trading partner — up from its 25th position last year. The US ($57,632.37 million), China ($50,792.83 million), UAE ($36,820.33 million), Saudi Arabia ($23,995 million), Iraq ($18,822.27 million) and Indonesia ($18,816.58 million) were the six countries which recorded higher volumes of trade with India during the first five months of 2022-23.

Of the total $18,229.03 million bilateral trade in April-August, India’s imports from Russia accounted for $17,236.29 million, while New Delhi’s exports to Moscow were only worth $992.73 million, leaving a negative trade balance of $16,243.56 million.

In 2021-22, India’s exports to Russia stood at $3,254.68 million, while imports from Moscow were valued at $9,869.99 million.

In the past, there have been only two occasions when bilateral trade between the two countries crossed the $10 billion mark – in 2017-18 ($10,686.85 million) and 2019-20 ($10,110.68 million).

A study of the data shows that Russia’s share in India’s total trade has increased to 3.54%, up from 1.27% in 2021-22. While Russia’s share in India’s total trade was 2.1% in 1997-98, it has hovered below 2% for the last 25 years.

Petroleum oil and other fuel items (mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation; bituminous substances; mineral waxes) accounted for 84% of India’s total imports from Russia in April-August this year, adding up to $14,476.52 million as compared to $1,593.58 million last year.

Fertilizers were second, with imports from Russia surging by 666.24% to $1,236.96 million in April-August this year, up from $161.43 million during the same period last year. Fertilizers and fuel together account for over 91% of the total imports from Russia this year.

Indian and Russian Relationship

Russian-Indian relations are undergoing a prominent change.

The fall of the Soviet Union, the rise of India and China, the U.S.-China tensions, the deepening of U.S.-India relations, and the Russian-Chinese partnership strengthened by Russia’s break with the West and the war against Ukraine have had a profound effect on Russian-Indian relations.

The arms trade with Russia is a strong relation India shares with Russia.  Russia remains a major supplier of weapons to India, and Russian equipment still makes up a vast portion of the Indian Armed Forces’ force structure. However, India’s aim to diversify its supply of weapons and create its own defense industry has resulted in declining Russian arms deliveries to India in recent years.

Russia’s break with the West because of its war against Ukraine has accelerated its connection with China.

However, while it seemed Indian Russian relations were fading out, the new rise in oil and fertilizer trade seems to be strengthening their relations along with the Russian export of arms to India.