The study, based on Omicron transmissibility rates, was conducted by Professor Siva Athreya, Professor Rajesh Sundaresan, and the team from the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) and Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), Bengaluru.

It says that the peak of the third coronavirus wave in India could be in January last week having its impact in February first week for the country. It, however, adds that different states will have different peaks. The peak of the third wave for different states will vary from mid-January to mid-February. The COVID-19 curve for India could start flattening by March-beginning, it added.

For Delhi, the model says, the peak could be by mid-January or the third week and for Tamil Nadu it will be in the last week of January or the first week of February, depending on the percentage of people susceptible to the virus.

The prediction has been done regarding that past infection and vaccination leave a fraction of the population exposed to the new variant. The model considered that either 30%, 60%, or 100% of the population is susceptible.

Depending on the percentage of people susceptible to the virus, the daily cases in India could be around 3 lakh, 6 lakh, or 10 lakh during the peak.

During the end of December, India has been seeing a sharp surge in coronavirus cases. However, the Union government is refusing to call it a fresh wave or third wave.

A similar study by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Kanpur has projected that the third wave of Covid-19 pandemic in India may peak by February 3.

The National Covid-19 Supermodel Committee had also predicted last month that the third wave of coronavirus is expected to hit India in February, adding that the daily coronavirus caseload in India could increase once the Omicron variant supersedes Delta as the dominant variant.

In its January 3 report, the tracker said: “Across India, daily growth rates are on increasing trends, implying that cases are accelerating, not merely increasing in almost all states and union territories. This phase of super-exponential growth in cases is likely to end in a few days. The daily growth rate is approaching its maximum in some states that are currently leading in terms of growth in infection. In the phase that follows cases will continue to increase but at smaller and smaller rates.”

India has been witnessing a sudden outburst of coronavirus infections with daily cases going up by five times since December 31, and the active caseload increasing by three times in the last seven days. The Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare data analyzed by News18 shows that cases of the Omicron variant have also doubled since December 31.

Some feel the virus breeds more in the cold season, but this may not be true because during the summer months of last year, 2021, the second death wave hit India mercilessly leading to the oxygen crisis.  Winter season festivities and mass gatherings including election rallies have always strengthened the virus.  This is a virus that needs isolation to die, but how long can humans isolate? Humans eventually need to build a stronger resistance and innoculate to build resistance.  A lot of people who have been doubly vaccinated are getting COVID right now, but the redeeming factor is many may not die as the virus is not as virulent and fatal, perhaps.

You might want to read about the second wave https://hamslivenews.com/2021/04/14/the-corona-saga/