Shinde’s camp is all set to come to Maharashtra where the equation will change, sources say many MPs are in touch with Uddhav Thackeray.
Shiv Sena’s rebel Eknath Shinde is all set to return to Maharashtra while BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis is going to be meeting Amit Shah according to sources.
This was all after the top court held in abeyance the disqualification proceedings against the rebel MLAs, where sources said the Shiv Sena is likely to approach the Supreme Court seeking directions against holding a floor test, should Maharashtra Governor BS Koshyari call one in the coming days.
While the Shiv Sena is likely to approach the Supreme Court seeking directions against holding a floor test, the rebel group led by Eknath Shinde is working on presenting a united front.
It is anticipated that the Governor could take suo moto cognizance and order the floor test. As there is no protem speaker in the Maharashtra assembly, the Deputy Speaker will conduct the floor test, even if aarea exists around the no-confidence motion against him by 34 Shiv Sena MLAs, the sources added.
If there is a floor test in the House, those in the Shinde faction will not abstain from voting, the sources said.
They added that the three-party MVA coalition, comprising the Shiv Sena, Congre,ss and the NCP, is likely to have 117 MLAs, while the Shinde faction combined with the BJP, independen, and others is expected to have 168 legislators. In the 288-member Maharashtra assembly, the majority mark is 145.
It is perceived that the rebel group led by disgruntled Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde would merge with the Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS).
The Uddhav Thackeray-led Maharashtra government plunged into a deep political crisis after Eknath Shinde flew to BJP-ruled Assam with a troupe of dissident Shiv Sena and independent MLAs. Their main demand is that the Sena withdraws from the MVA alliance.
On the other hand, the Shiv Sena has alleged that the BJP is pulling the strings in the ongoing political drama in Maharashtra.
BJP's Game plan:
1.Notice of motion against speaker
2. Governor will appoint proteum speaker, he will be mostly BJP MLA
3. Ask Thackeray to prove majority on the floor of the house
4. Once Thackeray fails to prove majority in house
5. Governor will call BJP to form govt.— Sudhir Suryawanshi (@ss_suryawanshi) June 28, 2022
This is what is anticipated will happen:
BJP’s Game plan:
1. Notice of motion against speaker
2. Governor will appoint proteum speaker, he will be mostly BJP MLA
3. Ask Thackeray to prove majority on the floor of the house
4. Once Thackeray fails to prove majority in the house
5. Governor will call BJP to form govt.
Opinion
In an opinion, it is doubted the BJP will return as the government of Maharashtra because sources reveal that a lot of MPs have been blackmailed with the ED threat causing this revolt. Uddhav Thackeray has the Shiv Sena workers on his side, while Eknath Shinde may have the MP numbers, but in actuality, which is stronger?
It is the “Sena worker’s street power” with Uddhav Thackeray is what even Shinde would prefer. While Shinde has the numbers of the fallen MPs with him, facing the wrath of the pro-Uddhav Thackeray Shiv Sena workers is harder. Why are they afraid? Why didn’t they return to Mumbai earlier? Why are they camping out in Assam? It is fear. Ultimately, it is gauged that Shinde’s Shiv Sena is reluctant to tie a knot with the BJP, it would be a betrayal of the workers.