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COVID-19 is spreading rapidly and there is a fourth wave scare with COVID-19 R-value (reproduction) indicating the virus is spreading.
COVID R-Value Increasing
According to media reports, specialists attribute the current COVID-19 surge, the looming threat of the fourth wave due to the relaxation of the mask rule, the reopening of schools, and increased social and economic activities.
There is a fourth wave scare with an R-value of over 1 which signifies that the number of active cases has increased. (Covid ‘R’ value is a mathematical term used to track the virus and predict how it may spread in a given area). R should be contained below 1 to control the pandemic. An R number lower than 1 indicates that the disease will stop spreading as there aren’t enough people being infected to sustain the outbreak.
The country’s R-value has steadily increased over the last few weeks and Delhi and Uttar Pradesh have an R-value above 2. The estimated R-value in the week ending April 18 was 2.12 for Delhi.
India’s R-value has been increasing over the last few weeks, is 1.07 for the week between April 12-18, according to Sitabhra Sinha from The Institute of Mathematical Sciences Chenna. In the preceding April 5-11 week, it was 0.93. The last time the R-value was above 1 was in the week between January 16-and 22, when the value was 1.28, Sinha said.
“This increase in R-value is not just because of Delhi but also Haryana and Uttar Pradesh,” said Sinha to PTI in an email interview who has been tracking the R number for India since the beginning of the pandemic.
“The total cases in India are indeed increasing exponentially. Of course, this being a very large country, this national rise is primarily being driven by a few regions – one cluster in the north (Delhi, Haryana, UP) and the other in the south (Karnataka),” Sinha said.
“It is interesting that the major cities of Mumbai, Chennai, and Bengaluru also have R above 1, suggesting that urban areas may be showing an increasing number of cases even though at the level of the entire state such an increase may not yet be apparent,” he noted.
After Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Delhi, the Punjab government on Thursday advised people to wear face masks in crowded places amid a surge in COVID-19 across the country.
Vaccination Drive
India’s COVID1-9 vaccination coverage crosses the 187 crore mark. The Ministry says, more than 2.65 crore vaccine doses administered to the 12 to 14 years age group so far.
Active Cases and COVID Score Yesterday
Yesterday, there were +2,380 cases, +56 deaths, and 13,433 active cases while America had 440 deaths, +50,881 new cases, and 1,169,747 active cases. Notably, a lot of Americans refuse to wear masks despite them having the highest death rates. The UK overtook America with +508 deaths yesterday.
Yes, COVID is not over, precautions must be taken.