Najeeb Jung, former Vice-Chancellor of Jamia Millia Islamia, identified four critical reasons why the BJP is heading towards defeat in UP.
Predicting the outcome of the Uttar Pradesh elections in an interview with Karan Thapar in the Wire, the former Lieutenant Governor of Delhi, Najeeb Jung has said that he is certain the Bharatiya Janata Party will lose and will not form the new government.
Jung also says the Samajwadi Party and its allies will comfortably cross 202 seats and get a majority of their own. They will form a government without any need for support from other parties.
Sharing four critical reasons why the BJP is heading towards defeat in UP, the most important, he said, is the fact that Narendra Modi is not the face of the BJP campaign but, in his place, the party is being led by Yogi Adityanath. Jung said if Modi had been the face, the outcome could have been different.
The other adverse factors working against the BJP, identified by Jung, are the resentment and anger against the farm laws and the overall problem of stray cows, unemployment, which he said is perhaps greater in UP than in other states and has particularly affected young male adults, and the chaotic and inept handling of COVID-19 and the trauma it created, which has not been forgotten.
Jung also stated that Adityanath’s campaign and speeches have not connected sufficiently to the concerns of UP voters, whilst his attempt to polarise the electorate is not working.
In contrast, Jung said Akhilesh Yadav’s handling of the Hindutva challenge, both in terms of what he says and does but also in terms of what he doesn’t say, is equivalent to Sun Tzu, the sixth century BC Chinese military strategist.
Jung believes that Yadav will attract not just Yadav OBCs but a very sizeable chunk of the non-Yadav OBCs, who will move from the BJP to the Samajwadi Party and its allies. He also said that 80% or more of Muslims will vote for the Samajwadi Party (compared to 58% in 2017).
On the other hand, Jung said a sizeable section of Brahmins will move away from the BJP, possibly to Congress. They are unlikely to vote for the Samajwadi Party but they are certain to weaken the BJP.
He said much the same could happen to non-Jatav Dalits. In 2017 they voted for the BSP. This time he believes they will move away to other parties They are unlikely to vote for the Samajwadi Party but they could vote in bigger numbers for Mayawati’s BSP and Congress. Again, this will weaken the BJP.
BJP does seem to be losing face in Uttar Pradesh. The recent rally of Prime Minister Modi, Chief Minister Yogi, and JP Nadda, President of the BJP in Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh were deserted. It appears the people of UP are angry because of broken promises, failure with farmers, and joblessness. See this video in the prime city of Kanpur reveals an empty rally.