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Third wave may not start this month in India but no vaccines available

HealthThird wave may not start this month in India but no vaccines available

The Center warns that the third wave of COVID-19 is likely to start from this month, but certain doctors believe it will not.

While the second wave struck hard, it did so because Indians were thronging in crowds in the midst of a very highly infectious new mutant of COVID-19, B1.617.2, exceedingly transmissible that spread to millions instantly.  The new Delta variant resisted immunity barriers and attacked the lungs viciously causing a high toll in deaths.

Dr. Shahid Jameel, a famous virologist discussed that different parts of India are peaking, and different parts of India are declining so it is not over and India should not get complacent about it.

He also said that the total infections are likely to be 30 times the number we have diagnosed, about 75% of the population. The level of immunity required is close to that. While India is approaching the end of this wave, he did reassure that the chance of another huge wave is extremely unlikely but one may have outbreaks where infection rates are low.

Dr. Shahid Jameel said that people have said the third wave will hit children but that did not have any scientific justification.

NITI Aayog member VK Saraswat said that India’s epidemiologists have given very explicit evidence that the third wave of Covid-19 is inevitable, and it is likely to start from September-October. Therefore the country should vaccinate more and more people. He said, “I think we have done reasonably well. We have managed the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic very well, as a result, Covid-19 numbers have come down significantly.

“… we have been able to manage (the second wave Covid-19 ) with the help of our science and technology activities, creating oxygen banks, making a large number of industries to support oxygen supply. Using railways, using airports, using the military for transporting liquid oxygen.”

“Earlier, more than 4 lakh cases were being reported daily in the country, but in the last few days, the number of new cases of infection has come down to around 1.3 lakh,” he said.

The third wave of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in India could be as intense as the second wave and it could last for an average duration of 98 days, according to a new report released by the State Bank of India (SBI) on June 1, 2021.

However, the impact can be reduced if the number of serious cases is arrested by prioritizing two things — improvement in health infrastructure and vaccination.

The report pointed out that the average duration of the third wave for developed countries was 98 days and that of the second wave was 108 days.

The hope is that in the third wave if India is better prepared, the drop in serious case rate (patients that require oxygen, intensive care unit beds, etc) will lead to fewer deaths. We find that if serious cases decline from 20 percent to 5 percent (due to better health infrastructure and rigorous vaccination) in the third wave, the number of deaths in the third wave could significantly reduce to 40,000, as compared to the current deaths of more than 0.17 million.

While they stressed that children could be the next vulnerable group and that vaccination should be the key priority, especially for them, unfortunately, there are no vaccines in India presently, and the great plans to innoculate millions seems a far-reaching dream presently.  On the practical side, there are still very few companies manufacturing vaccines and the Center has not yet boosted up the vaccine production.

Presently in India, the total number of active cases of COVID-19 has reached over 1.79 million while the death rate yesterday was 344,101, still the highest in the world.  In the United States, after 50% being vaccinated, deaths rates have dropped to the hundreds whereas last year, USA deaths rates were in the 5000s and more, the highest in the world.

 

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